Russia’s “Catch Me If You Can” over the Baltic Sea

Russian military aircraft are repeatedly intercepted over the Baltic Sea. Its air force is violating international aviation rules.

On 6 April, the German air force (Luftwaffe), stationed at a joint NATO air base in Latvia’s Lielvārde scrambled armed Eurofighter jets to intercept an unidentified aircraft flying without a transponder signal. Unsurprisingly, the aircraft was from the Russian military. This time, it was a Russian IL-20 surveillance aircraft.

Russian military aircraft are regularly intercepted over the Baltic Sea, most recently reportedly by the Italian air force in March 2024. Previously, Britain’s Royal Air Force (RAF) and the Luftwaffe intercepted three Russian aircraft – two SU-27 fighter jets and one IL-20 – in April 2023. While these aircraft fly in international air space, they violate international norms by disabling their navigation transponder signals – putting themselves and any aircraft in the area in danger of collision. Thankfully, no incident has occurred yet, either with a civilian or miliary aircraft, but the possibility exists that this could occur at some point. Indeed, in 2006 two civilian aircraft collided in Brazil because one plane accidentally had its transponder disabled.

Why exactly Russia is flying surveillance aircraft over the Baltic Sea remains unclear. Most likely, though, it is a display of defiance in a region that has become increasingly contentious between European NATO states and Russia. The still unclarified destruction of the Nordstream pipeline in 2022 which, prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine supplied Germany with natural gas, is but one example of the contest in the Baltic Sea. The recent accessions of Sweden and Finland to NATO have also been met with disapproval in Russia.

Arguably any potential surveillance intelligence that Russia might be gleaning from these overflights is secondary to the symbolic value they convey. By turning off their transponders, Russia deliberately flouts international norms and regulations, thereby subverting the international rules-based order in a less overt manner. It conveys the message to the littoral Baltic states, and beyond, that Russia plays by its own rule book. Moreover, it flexes its muscles and demands attention from NATO forces, reminding them that Russia remains a force to be reckoned with in the Baltic Sea region, reminding stakeholders that Russia will not cede influence in the region easily. Its Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad, nestled between Lithuania and Poland, serves as a constant reminder of this state of affairs.

Furthermore, Russia most likely knows that it will not face severe consequences from these flights, as no NATO country would dare to overtly challenge them due to fears of escalation and confrontation. However, accidents can occur, and navigation systems can fail. In January 2024, Russian aircraft flew close to the German Baltic island of Rügen. Thus, the question arises: what would happen if Russian aircraft accidentally crossed into German, or another NATO member’s airspace. The Luftwaffe would probably not unilaterally shoot down a Russian aircraft at a time of conflict in Ukraine. However, the lack of any ramifications for provocations is concerning as it signals a lack of resolve toward an aggressive Russia. NATO air forces do nothing more than document these not-so-secret “stealth” flights, communicate with the pilots to inform them about their invisibility to air traffic control, and then hope that they change course before crossing into NATO airspace. Hitherto, they have done so, but the worry should be what would happen if they did not. Clearly, were such a scenario to transpire, and a hostile Russian aircraft to cross into NATO airspace – accidentally or otherwise – the intercepting force would be justified in shooting it down. However, this would severely escalate relations with Russia and potentially make it more difficult for European supporters of Ukraine to rationalise their position as being non-combatants in Ukraine’s resistance.

Moreover, were there to be an accidental collision between a civilian and a Russian military aircraft, what would the consequences be? The 2014 downing of Malaysian Airlines flight 17 over Ukraine, allegedly by Russian-backed fighters, beckons as a pertinent reminder of what can happen when a pariah state’s actions go unchecked. The provocative actions taken by the Russian air force over the Baltic Sea, and near NATO airspaces, adds uncertainty to Eastern Europe’s fragile security situation. By operating in the grey zone, Russia hopes to claim plausible deniability. However, it knows fully that its aerial actions over the Baltic Sea and near NATO airspace are provocative. Nonetheless, it is willing to put European peace, and indeed civilian lives, in jeopardy to make a psychological point.

Elsewhere, Russia also shows little interest in internationally accepted borders and is willing to briefly infringe upon NATO airspace. Recent Polish revelations allege that Russian cruise missiles briefly transgressed Polish airspace three times over the past 16 months. These missiles were targeting Ukraine but violated Polish airspace to circumvent Ukrainian defences. The Polish foreign ministry summoned the Russian ambassador in Warsaw, though he has refused to meet with Polish officials and explain the violations. The Russian operating logic appears to be that, if missiles have to violate NATO airspace to strike Ukrainian targets, so be it.

Undoubtedly, Russia should face some form of consequence for disobeying international aviation safety rules. However, punitive measures against violating states will likely not effectively deter Russia. Afterall, sanctions against the regime have hitherto not hampered Russia’s metastasing into Ukrainian territory. Clearly, non-kinetic messaging fails to trigger a change of course in Moscow. Rather, European and NATO leaders should discuss contingencies for what should be done if Russian aircraft fail to comply. Plausibly, NATO leaders may already have come to an agreement on such a scenario but have chosen not to disclose contingencies to maintain strategic ambiguity. However, the decision should not be made when Russian aircraft is over NATO airspace but beforehand so that the Alliance can stand united against such aggression. In the meantime, NATO air forces should continue to intercept, document, and publicise Russia’s covert flights. By publicising these events, Russia provokes another, probably unintended, response: it reminds Western and European publics that Russia is a real and present danger, and this danger is not subsiding.

Purportedly, Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine to repel and challenge NATO expansion. In reality, his expansionism is motivated by a revanchist mindset that hopes to establish an elusive Novorossiya. What stands in Putin’s way is the international rules-based order and established borders. In Ukraine, it was the Budapest Memorandum which he blatantly violated, and international aviation regulation is but another manifestation of this order. But contrary to Putin’s objectives, NATO was not hamstrung by infighting among its leaders, but rather grew more united, accepting further two new members on Russia’s border. Likewise, Russian transponder-less flights and violation of Polish airspace should draw NATO closer together and remind the public of the need to support the Alliance and Ukraine until it emerges victorious against a revanchist Russia. Putin once lamented that the breakup of the Soviet Union was a tragedy. Clearly the former Soviet spy needs reminding of who won the Cold War, in both Ukraine and over the Baltic Sea.

Jasper Hufschmidt Morse is a fourth-year student of International Security Studies at the Australian National University in Canberra, majoring in Middle East and Central Asian Studies. He previously lived and worked in Germany, where he received the “Abitur” diploma.

This article is published under a Creative Commons Licence and may be republished with attribution.